The talent availableThis isn’t a strong year in terms of ‘blue chip’ talent – only one player rates in my top 10 overall – but with the ‘two back attack’ now en vogue around the NFL that doesn’t matter as much as teams are looking for players with different skill-sets that they can use to complement each other.
Most of the backs in this draft have ‘knocks’ on them i.e. speed, injuries, attitude, fumbles, etc but there is quality in the depth at the position through the first four rounds. I have three RB’s rated in my top 32 overall with another three more in my top 60 overall and two others in my top 100. This year sees a pretty even split between junior entries and seniors amongst the top backs available.
What do I think the Giants should do?This was a M*A*S*H unit last year. Brandon Jacobs got hurt early and was a shadow of his former self, absorbing punishment rather than dishing it out. Ahmad Bradshaw stepped up until he injured both his feet. Danny Ware was a disappointment to everyone when he did play and also missed time with injuries. Gartrell Johnson was signed off the Chargers Practice Squad and looked like he could challenge in camp - but no more than that. Rookie Andre Brown saw his entire first season wiped out by a ruptured achilles tendon. Whether he can return to 100% fitness this year from that type of injury is debatable.
I’m really torn as to the direction the Giants should go. On the one hand since Tiki Barber retired we’ve been missing a scat-back capable of busting long runs for TD’s as well as catching passes and producing big plays in the passing game. On the other hand, I see the need for another ‘banger’ as insurance for Jacobs and then to replace him a year down the line but also to prevent Bradshaw being over used and worn down as the season goes on, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Brown’s return.
How will things play out on draft day?Recent history shows that if there is a stand-out RB they will be taken in the top 10 but most of the time the better backs are allowed to drift towards the bottom of the round to a point where they are considered too good to overlook. Other backs will simply linger into the 2nd round and beyond.
Teams likely to look for help at RB this year include Detroit, Seattle, Cleveland, Miami, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego & Minnesota.
The top prospectsThe top back in this draft by some distance is
CJ Spiller (Clemson). Has decent size at just over 5’10 1/2”, 196lb’s and the comparisons made with Reggie Bush in terms of his multi-dimensional skills and athletic ability are legit. Has elite speed - was a track star in college when not playing football and burned up the track at the Combine running a 4.27 over 40 yards. Can take the ball the distance on any given play. Has the sort of vision and cutting ability that embarrasses would-be tackler’s. Some say he is ‘soft’ because he goes out of bounds rather than taking extra hits and isn’t known as an interior runner. I’d say that doubts about his toughness can be put to rest by the fact he never lost a fumble in four years and frequently played through pain (had a toe problem this year that required a jab every week just to be able to play). Provided exceptional all-purpose productivity throughout his career (606-3547 yards & 32 TD’s rushing, 123-1420 yards & 11 TD’s receiving, a 27.7 yard average on kick returns & 7 TD’s, 10.7 yard punt return average & another TD and threw for 2 TD’s). The Giants were ‘all over him’ at his Pro Day so clearly are intrigued with him and wanted to learn more. Who can blame them? He’s a legitimate top 10 talent whose big-play ability changes games.
Ryan Matthews (Fresno State) is widely considered he top junior entry at the position in this draft. At 5’11 1/2”, 218lb’s he offers teams a good blend of size and breakaway speed (ran a 4.37 at the Combine). Had a ‘monster’ junior year racking up a nation leading 1808 rushing yards & 19 TD’s before entering the NFL draft early. I really only recall seeing him in his teams Bowl game this past season and he looked more like a physical, well balanced type of runner who excels in breaking tackles and eking out extra yardage than a creative, elusive one. Hasn’t been used much as a receiver (19-268 & 2 TD’s for his career) but appeared comfortable in pass protection. However, putting the ball on the ground twice in that game worried me somewhat! Might be considered a little over-rated by some based on his stats/level of competition but it should be noted that he also performed well against the elite teams on the Bulldogs schedule (Wisconsin, Boise State & Cincinnati).
Had
Jahvid Best (Cal) not suffered a season ending concussion/back injury - missing the final 4 games before entering the draft as a junior - I don’t doubt that he would be generating a lot more pre-draft publicity than he has to date. Similar sized to Spiller at 5’10”, 199lb’s and almost as fast (ran a 4.34 at the Combine) he is a very quick and explosive runner with jaw-dropping change of direction and cutting ability. Very productive as both a runner and receiver generating 2268 yards & 29TD’s rushing at a stunning 7.33 ypc career average and snagging 62 career passes for 533 yards & 6 TD’s. Used in a rotation system rarely seeing the ball more than 20 times in a game. Also had some success as a kick returner - has a career average of 26.75 on his 32 returns - but wasn’t used in that capacity as a junior. Isn’t known as a tackle breaker Willing but ineffective pass blocker (goes low too often and misses). Has missed time each year with injuries but the injury suffered this year was the only major one. Should be a dynamic ‘change of pace’ back in a passing based offense that can take advantage of his skill-set.
Amongst all the backs in this draft,
Jonathon Dwyer (Georgia Tech) draws the biggest differences of opinion with regard to his ranking, largely because he played a FB type role in the Rambling Wreck offense and mostly ran ‘dive’ plays making it difficult to evaluate his running skills, cutting ability and creativity. Enormously productive - ran for 3226 yards and 35 TD’s at a 6.25 ypc average in just three years before entering the draft early. Wasn’t used much in the passing game (just 15 career receptions) as his team didn’t throw and doesn’t have much experience as a pass blocker either though it should be noted he was a willing and effective blocker in the running game. Has very good size at 5’11 1/4”, 229lb’s but played at over 240lb’s and looked a little flabby in the mid-section during games. Has quick feet, enormous tackle breaking power in the lower half of his body and a devastating stiff arm. Doesn’t have long distance speed (runs in the mid 4.6 range over 40 yards) but broke plenty of long runs and shows enough vision to make something happen in the open field. I like him a lot and think he’d be a fine fit for the Giants offense, others no doubt will disagree!
At 5’8 3/4”, 172lb’s many would assume that
Dexter McCluster (Mississippi) is simply too small to play RB at the next level. Indeed, several draft sites have gone as far as to classify him as a WR prospect because of this. Had injury problems earlier in his career that caused him to miss games but has been relatively healthy the past two seasons and was hugely productive as both a runner and receiver (1,824 yards & 14 TD’s rushing at 6.28 ypc, 88-1145 & 4TD’s receiving). Has an explosive first step, great vision, moves and a real burst in the open field to run away from defenders and score from long distances. Is a whole lot tougher and harder to bring down than you’d imagine for someone of his size. Has excellent hands and was lined up out wide a lot, but really only seemed to catch ‘bubble’ screens and dump off’s rather than running routes. Played some QB in the ‘wild rebel’ package. Projecting him as a return specialist is a bit of a ‘reach’ - has only returned 8 punts and 17 kicks in his career to date but reportedly impressed in this role at the Senior Bowl practices. Has had some ball security issues - likely because his hands are very small - and durability is a concern in the long-term but I see no reason he shouldn’t have an immediate impact for whichever team drafts him.
The best of the restJoe McKnight (USC) is the last of the top scat-backs, but a clear step down in terms of production. Is just under 5’11 1/2”, 198lb’s with 4.40 speed over 40 yards. Junior entry with a 6.38 yards per carry career average. Not as productive over the course of his career as he should have been - was hyped as ‘the next Reggie Bush’ but never lived up to that billing. Had some nagging injuries & a well-earned reputation for fumbling. Was used almost exclusively as an ‘outside’ runner until this year when he showed more toughness between the tackles. Seemed to put it all together for the first time in ’09 rushing for 1,104 yards & scoring 8 TD’s, catching 22 passes. Has very good hands, can run routes smoothly and catch the ball coming over his shoulder. Can also return punts but hasn’t shown much more than just a few flashes of ability in that phase of the game. Despite his speed and vision he gets caught from behind too often in the open field. Was not cleared by the NCAA to play in what would have been his final college game (Emerald Bowl) due to a pending investigation into his alleged use of an SUV owned by a business man. The type of player who can turn games around as a ‘change of pace’ but who always seems to have something wrong with him physically that holds him back from doing so consistently
Toby Gerhart (Stanford) seemingly has generated headlines by virtue of being a ‘white’ RB and even sparked controversy as various media outlets labelled him a FB. This despite his winning the Doak Walker Award as the Nation’s top RB last year after rushing for 1871 yards at 5.5 ypc and scoring 28 TD’s! Is a hard charging North-South runner with just enough speed to turn the corner - ran a 4.5 at his Pro Day but doesn’t appear that fast. Can juke a defender in the open field but is more of a straight-line runner. Generates a lot of power from his lower body and punishes defenders on every play. Breaks a lot of tackles with his legs but also has a nice stiff-arm in the open field. Drags tacklers along for the ride. Excellent short yardage and goal-line runner. Decent in pass protection. Can catch (39 career receptions) but doesn’t run routes. Tore his ACL in ’07 but has managed to stay relatively healthy since (banged up some but doesn’t miss games). Needs to learn how to protect the ball better - gets stripped from behind far too frequently. Has options for a career in sports - apparently is a very good baseball prospect too.
Montario Hardesty (Tennessee) was seen as a bit of an underachiever earlier in his career but has seen his ‘stock’ rise sharply in recent months based on a strong Combine workout - ran a 4.49, had a 41” vertical jump and did very well in the short shuttle and 3 cone events - following a very productive senior season when he rushed for 1345 yards & 13TD’s. Has good size at 5’11 3/4”, 225lb’s but has major injuries to his knee, ankle and leg in his past that kept him off the field (torn ACL, high ankle sprains, stress fracture in his leg). His explosiveness does not translate to the field nearly as well as his athletic ability suggests it should - has a meagre 4.27 ypc career average. Part of that was playing behind a poor line and being banged up (which also hurt his conditioning in his early years) but in truth he runs a bit upright, isn’t overly creative in the open field and doesn’t possess great cutting ability or vision. Is a physical one-cut runner who makes tough yards after contact, has just enough speed to get outside, catches the ball well out of the backfield (25-302 this season) and is a decent pass protector. Good character - was a two-time team captain even though he didn’t start as a junior. Could drop a long way were he not to check out medically
Ben Tate (Auburn) is an enigma as far as I’m concerned. For 3 years he was a tease - showing off a nice combo of speed and power but never really showing consistency, fumbling too often and ‘disappearing’ in big games against good defenses. He’s a bit of a straight-line runner who predominantly uses his speed to turn the corner and then shows toughness to avoid going down. Had a break-out year as a senior rushing for 1,362 yards & 10 TD’s at a 5.2 ypc average. Has been used as a receiver out of the backfield (53-336 for his career) but is little more than a dump pass catcher as no threat to break a big play. Doesn’t appear that instinctive to me, just very athletic. I consider him vastly overrated and see him as no more than a 4th round pick.
LeGarrette Blount (Oregon) ran for 1,002 yards & 17TD’s with a 7.3 ypc average as a junior
but his ‘claim to fame’ as a senior was KO’ing a Boise State player with a punch at the start of the year and being suspended most of the year. His ‘rehabilitation’ has seen him earn plaudits. Closest thing to Brandon Jacobs this draft has to offer in terms of running style and demeanor on the field - he is a very powerful man who seemingly likes running over tacklers but like BJ lacks a quick first step and doesn’t have the stop/start moves to avoid tacklers in the backfield. Unused in the passing game (just 4 career receptions) and doesn’t appear that interested in blocking. Built like a Linebacker at an imposing 6’ 1/2”, 241lb’s but hasn’t always kept himself in great shape. Immature. Looked good at the Senior Bowl practices and in the game itself despite having played sparingly for the Ducks on his return from suspension. Is the most one-dimensional of the better prospects but his ability to ‘set the tone’ with a bruising run early in games and mash the opposition into submission late on cannot be ignored.
The ‘sleeper’Deji Karim (Southern Illinois) isn’t a player I’ve seen play in a game but the highlights packages of him suggest that he might be the 4th best scat-back in this entire draft. His ability to cut, run away from defenders and find lanes to break big plays through reminded me of former Eagle Brian Westbrook!! Sat out 2008 with a knee injury but after rehabbing it had an outstanding final season for the Saluki’s (1694 yards & 18 TD’s rushing at a stunning 7.1 ypc, 17-212 and 1TD receiving,14-433 & 1TD as a kick returner). Wasn’t invited to the Combine but ‘knocked the door down’ with scouts in attendance at his Pro Day measuring up at 5’8 1/2”, 209lb’s, running his 40 yard dash in 4.40, excelling in the short shuttle and 3 cone events and stunning onlookers with a 43” vertical jump. He’s certainly got the athletic ability to be a pro.
SummaryLooking for a scat-back who can add the missing ingredients to the passing game were Spiller still to be available when the 15th pick overall rolls around, he would be incredibly hard for the Giants to pass up even though their primary need appears to be on defense at MLB. I think Best will be taken in the first few picks of the 2nd round so if the Giants were to target him I think they would need to trade up. McCluster is another option that might entice but I think the 46th pick overall is a little too early for him but can’t see him lasting to the 76th. McKnight would be a nice ‘consolation prize’ in the 3rd round. Karim I know little of but he might be attractive to the Giants on the third day of the draft considering they have had some success with a Saluki of their own!
Looking for a traditional ‘banger’, Dwyer looks like a very nice fit in terms of what he brings to the table and would offer good value with the 46th pick overall but his ability to ‘pay the price’ off the field makes me wonder if the Giants would even consider him. Hardesty isn’t ‘special’ in any way but he appears to fit the Giants ‘type’, as does Gerhart. In the 3rd round, one of them might be tempting. Despite his troubles, Blount actually appeals to me more than Hardesty or Gerhart because he looks and plays like Brandon Jacobs! I’d be happy to roll the dice on him in the 4th round.
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